Euro rises to highest since 2021 against dollar
Ankur Banerjee, Reuters
The euro is hovering near its highest level in almost four years against the dollar ahead of a July deadline for US president Donald Trump's tariffs.
With the geopolitical tremors of the Israel-Iran conflict in the rear view after a ceasefire that appeared to be holding, market focus this week has been on US monetary policy.
The prospect of Trump announcing the next Federal Reserve chair earlier than usual to undermine the current chair Jerome Powell has raised the odds of the central bank cutting rates.
"The sooner a replacement is announced for Powell, the sooner he could be perceived to be a ‘lame duck'," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
Trump has not decided on a replacement for Powell and a decision is not imminent, a person familiar with the White House's deliberations told Reuters on Thursday.
Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell and called for rate cuts this year, stoking investor worries about the slow erosion of US central bank's independence and credibility.
The euro eased to $1.16885 after hitting $1.1745 in the previous session, its highest since September 2021.
The dollar index, which measures the US unit versus six other currencies, was lingering near its lowest since March 2022 at 97.398, on course for a 2 per cent decline in June, its sixth straight month in the red.
The index has dropped more than 10 per cent this year as Trump's tariffs stoke US growth worries, leading investors to look for alternatives.
Investors are also looking for signs of progress on new trade deals ahead of the July 9th deadline for Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs as nations scramble to get an agreement over the line.
German chancellor Friedrich Merz said on Thursday the EU should do a "quick and simple" trade deal with the United States rather than a "slow and complicated" one.
A White House official said the US has reached an agreement with China on how to expedite rare earths shipments to the United States.
The US dollar's weakness pushed the Australian dollar , often considered a risk proxy, to a seven-month high of $0.6564 on Thursday. Emerging market currencies also got a lift from the beaten-down US dollar, with the Taiwan dollar surging to its strongest level since April 2022.
"Everyone is selling US dollars – foreign investors are selling, and exporters are selling too," a Taiwan-based trader told Reuters. "Even now, we have big clients who sold their US dollar positions early this morning."
